Well you know that it has been coming but Microsoft has announced that it is going to be offering hosted services. What is it going to offer? Firstly, things like Exchange, Sharepoint and Office but eventually I'm sure that you'll find all of Microsoft's software online.
So where does that leave distributors and resellers? As I have said for a while here, simple GONE! Microsoft writes the software, Microsoft hosts the software and eventually Microsoft collects the money directly. Sure, initially it may chose to resell through resellers but in the long run why would you bother? If they are doing everything else except send the bills doesn't it make sense to cut out the middle person and do everything directly with the customer? Makes a hell of a lot of sense to me from a business perspective.
If you think that this 'hosted software' is a fad I believe you are ignorant. If you are not changing your business models and skills to cope with this changing landscape then you are naive. But hey, that your choice but to me the IT world is clearly changing and there isn't going to much room left for the small companies that try and sell shrink wrapped computers and software to customers any more. Soon you'll only be in business if you can add VALUE to what is available from the big boys like Google and Microsoft.
To see what Microsoft is now offering online see http://www.microsoft.com/online/default.mspx